مستقبل الحرب الروسية- الأوكرانية ومدى انعكاسها على امن دول شرق أوربا بعد العام 2022

عمار حميد ياسين; زهراء جاسم كاظم

doi:10.30907/jcopolicy.vi66.680

Authors

Ammar Hameed Yasien University of Baghdad / College of Political Science
Zahra Jassim Kazem University of Baghdad / College of Political Science

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30907/jcopolicy.vi66.680

Keywords:

war, Russia, Ukraine, international initiatives, scenarios, conflict

Abstract

Wars are considered one of the most dangerous threats in the global system; they represent a violation of international laws, norms, and humanitarian principles. Therefore, the study of our topic titled "The Future of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Extent of its Reflection on the Security of Eastern European Countries after 2022" is of significant importance. This research focuses on exploring the future possibilities (scenarios) of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which was initiated by the Russian government, led by President Vladimir Putin, in February 2022. The war is still ongoing at the time of writing this research.

The hypothesis of the research is based on the idea that attempting to foresee the future trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war after 2022 involves proposing multiple possible scenarios and analyzing them according to the developments and supporting evidence for each scenario. Among these is the scenario of ending the war, which is the most likely and expected to be in a way that satisfies Russia. This is because Russia will not accept withdrawal without compensation, or it could involve keeping the areas under Russian control and annexing them, as happened in Crimea in 2014. Alternatively, there could be a division of influence between the West and Russia: The West would have economic influence in Ukraine, while Russia retains its military influence.

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