The 2025 Israel–Iran War: between Mutual Deterrence and the Reshaping of Regional Security

Abstract

The outbreak of the Israel–Iran war in June 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in regional security. The confrontation between two potential nuclear powers revived nuclear deterrence as a central mechanism for reshaping regional power balances, while simultaneously exposing the limitations of conventional deterrence and the growing risks of nuclear proliferation in the region. The study examines the extent to which concepts of nuclear deterrence and the regional military balance have evolved amid the fragility of collective security structures. Analysis of the conflict’s trajectory demonstrates that deterrence is no longer unilateral or exclusively based on hard power; rather, it has developed into a multidimensional framework integrating nuclear, cyber, and psychological capabilities. The conflict further revealed the fragility of established rules of engagement, the declining capacity of major powers to control escalation, and the transformation of military achievements into short-term tactical gains. The war also contributed to the reconfiguration of regional alliances and underscored the strategic importance of maritime routes within the deterrence equation. Post-conflict stability, therefore, does not represent the end of confrontation, but rather a temporary phase requiring institutionalized security arrangements and calibrated deterrence mechanisms to prevent renewed escalation.