The Political and Economic Dynamics of State Fragility in Yemen after 2011

Abstract

This study offers an in-depth analysis of the political and economic dynamics underlying state fragility in Yemen after 2011, arguing that the current crisis is not merely an armed conflict but the cumulative outcome of long-standing fragile political, economic, and social structures. These structures have exacerbated marginalization, misallocation of resources, and the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of narrow networks, resulting in a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe affecting the vast majority of the population.

The study aims to analyze the factors that perpetuate structural fragility in Yemen. It seeks to answer a central question: How have entrenched structures—such as elite dominance, stalled political transition, and the transformation of the economy into a war economy—exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and impeded state-building efforts?

Employing a comparative political economy approach, the study draws on historical and structural analysis to examine the relationship between state structures, the rentier economy, and the role of elites in reproducing fragility. It addresses six main themes across three temporal phases—pre-2011, the transitional period, and the post-war outbreak phase—to trace the evolution of fragility and its transformation into a complex crisis.

The findings reveal that state fragility in Yemen is the product of an intricate interplay between political and economic dynamics. Key drivers of collapse include the rentier economy, the failed political transition, and the emergence of a fragmented war economy. Rival factions have strengthened their influence by capturing state resources, thereby deepening fragmentation and undermining livelihoods. This situation has led to the collapse of public services and the worsening of the humanitarian crisis, while international aid has become a new form of rent that fuels division rather than supporting unified state institutions. Collectively, these dynamics sustain a condition of neither peace nor war and perpetuate the logic of state fragility.