مستقبل الحرب الروسية- الأوكرانية ومدى انعكاسها على امن دول شرق أوربا بعد العام 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30907/jcopolicy.vi66.680الكلمات المفتاحية:
الحرب، روسيا، أوكرانيا، المبادرات الدولية، السيناريوهات، الصراعالملخص
تعُد الحروب أحد أخطر التهديدات في النظام العالمي; فهي تعد خرقاً للقوانين والأعراف الدولية، والمبادئ الإنسانية، ومن هنا تأتي دراسة أهمية موضوعنا الموسوم بـ (مستقبل الحرب الروسية- الأوكرانية ومدى انعكاسها على امن دول شرق أوربا بعد العام 2022)، اذ يرتكز هذا البحث دراسة في استعراض الاحتمالات المستقبلية (السيناريوهات) للحرب الروسية – الأوكرانية، والتي شنت من الحكومة الروسية بقيادة الرئيس الروسي (فلاديمير بوتين) في شباط عام 2022م، فهي لا تزال مستمرة حتى كتابة هذا البحث. تنطلق فرضية البحث من فكرة مفادها: ان محاولة استشراف المسارات المستقبلية للحرب الروسية-الأوكرانية بعد العام 2022م من خلال وضع احتمالات (سيناريوهات) متعددة وتحليلها وفق المجريات والأدلة الداعمة لكل احتمال (سيناريو) من ضمنها حل انهاء الحرب، وهو المرجح والذي يتوقع أن يكون بترضية لروسيا; لأن روسيا لن تقبل بالانسحاب دون مقابل، أو ابقاء المناطق المسيطر عليها من روسيا وضمها اليها. كما حدث في شبه جزيرة القرم عام 2014م، أو تقاسم النفوذ بين الغرب وروسيا، للغرب نفوذ اقتصادي في أوكرانيا، وروسيا تحتفظ بنفوذها العسكري.
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