تأثير تدويل الأزمة الليبية في مستقبل التسوية السياسية

المؤلفون

  • حمدي حسين محمد همام

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30907/jcopolicy.vi65.522

الكلمات المفتاحية:

الصراع الليبي، تدويل الأزمة، الجيش الوطني الليبي، حكومة الوفاق الوطني، تركيا.

الملخص

أدى تدويل الأزمة الليبية وما صاحبها من عسكرة للصراع دوراً حيوياً في إعاقة الوصول إلى حل سياسي شامل في ليبيا. لأن الأطماع الدولية المتزايدة في موارد الطاقة الليبية والأهمية الجيوسياسية للدولة الليبية أدى إلى تورط العديد من القوى الدولية والإقليمية في هذه الأزمة وتحويلها إلى "حرب بالوكالة". علاوة على ذلك ، يعد التدخل العسكري التركي المباشر في الأزمة الليبية من المعوقات الرئيسة التي تواجه الجهود الدولية والإقليمية لحل الأزمة الليبية نتيجة إصرار تركيا على وجودها العسكري في ليبيا حفاظًا على مصالحها الوطنية في شرق المتوسط. لذا فإن سيناريو استمرار الخلاف حول الشرعية بين الفصائل الليبية وتحويل الأزمة الليبية إلى معضلة جيوسياسية سيكون الأقرب إلى الواقع.

المراجع

Abdelhadi, Magdi . 2020. "Libya conflict: Why Egypt might send troops to back Gen Haftar". BBC. August 18, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53779425

Ahram Online . 2020. "Cairo supports truce, political settlement in Libya: Egypt's FM tells UN envoy". August 30, 2020.

https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/378932/Egypt/Politics-/Cairo-supports-truce,-political-settlement-in-Liby.aspx

Ahram Online. 2021. "East Mediterranean Gas Forum’s statute comes into effect as ministers meet in Cairo". March 9, 2021. https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/405649/Business/Economy/East-Mediterranean-Gas-Forum%E2%80%99s-statute-comes-into-.aspx

Al-Anani, Khalil. 2020. "Understanding Egypt’s Strategy in Libya". Arab Center Washington DC. Jul 8, 2020. http://arabcenterdc.org/policy_analyses/understanding-egypts-strategy-in-libya/

Ali, Idrees. 2017. "U.S. airstrikes kill 17 Islamic State militants in Libya: U.S. military". reuters. September 25, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/cnews-us-usa-libya-strike-idCAKCN1BZ0P5-OCATP

Allinson, Tom, and Mahmoud Hussein. 2019. "Turkey-Libya maritime deal triggers Mediterranean tensions". DW. November 30, 2019. https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-libya-maritime-deal-triggers-mediterranean-tensions/a-51477783

Tastekin, Fehim. 2021. "What’s next for Turkey in Libya after election of new interim leaders?". Al-Monitor. February 10, 2021. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/02/turkey-libya-interim-government-safeguard-turkish-interests.html

AOAV. 2018. "UK arms exports to Libya". November 17, 2018. https://aoav.org.uk/2018/uk-arms-sales-to-libya/

Baskan, B. 2016. Turkey and Qatar in the tangled geopolitics of the Middle East. New York: Palgrave Pivot.

BBC. 2020a. "Libya Crisis: France suspends Nato mission role amid Turkey row". July 2, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53262725.

BBC. 2016. "Guide to key Libyan militias". January 11, 2016. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-19744533

BBC. 2020b. " Libya conflict: Turkey sends troops to shore up UN-backed government". January 6, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-51003034

Belkhairat, Hussein. 2020. "The Future of the Libyan Crisis: a prospective study through the technique of morphological analysis." Journal of Legal and Social Studies 5, no. 3: 737-736.

Black, Ian . 2011. "UK and France dismiss Italy's call for pause in Nato bombing of Libya". theguardian .Jun 22, 2011.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jun/22/libya-nato-bombing-uk-france-italy

Borshchevskaya, Anna . 2020. "Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya". washingtoninstitute. Jan 24, 2020.

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/russias-growing-interests-libya

Boserup, R. A., & Collombier, V. 2018. "Dynamics of Armed Group Proliferation in Egypt and Libya". MENARA Working Papers: 2-21.

Bucher, Jessica, Lena Engel, Stephanie Harfensteller, and Hylke Dijkstra. 2013. "Domestic politics, news media and humanitarian intervention: why France and Germany diverged over Libya." European security 22, no. 4: 524-539.

Butler, Daren, and Tuvan Gumrukcu. 2019. "Turkey signs maritime boundaries deal with Libya amid exploration row". reuters. November 28, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-libya-idUSKBN1Y213I

Callahan, W. A. 2016. "China’s “Asia Dream” the belt road initiative and the new regional order." Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 1, no. 3: 226-243.

CECI. 2017. "Interview: Strategic interests behind France's stance on Libya collides with those of Italy - XinhuaNet" . July 26, 2017. https://www.cesi-italia.org/eventi/625/interview-strategic-interests-behind-frances-stance-on-libya-collides-with-those-of-italy-xinhuanet

Coskun, Orhan , and Tuvan Gumrukcu. 2020. "Turkey eyes Libya bases for lasting military foothold: source".Reuters. June 15, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-turkey-russia-idUSKBN23M1D9

Darbouche, H., L. El-Katiri, and B. Fattouh. 2012. "East Mediterranean Gas–what kind of a game-changer?". the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. December 2012: 1-37.

DW. 2021. "Libyan parliament approves unity government". March 10, 2021. https://www.dw.com/en/libyan-parliament-approves-unity-government/a-56826306

DW. 2014. "Libyan court: government void". June 11, 2014. https://www.dw.com/en/top-libyan-court-declares-parliament-unconstitutional/a-18045969

Egypt Today. 2020. "Qatar dispatches hundreds of Somali mercenaries to Libya". July 26, 2020. https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/90106/Qatar-dispatches-hundreds-of-Somali-mercenaries-to-Libya

Elhennawy, Noha. 2020. "Egypt, Greece sign maritime deal to counter Libya-Turkey one". Washington post. August 6, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypt-greece-sign-maritime-deal-to-counter-libya-turkey-one/2020/08/06/896646a8-d802-11ea-a788-2ce86ce81129_story.html

Fitzgerald, Mary , and Mattia Toaldo. 2016. "A quick guide to Libya’s main players". ecfr. May 19, 2016. https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_libya_conflict/

Forbes. 2011. "Italy's Interests in Libya". March 31, 2011. https://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/03/31/italys-interests-in-libya/?sh=163eec6672a4

Gartenstein-Ross, Daveed, and Nathaniel Barr. 2015. "Dignity and dawn: Libya’s escalating civil war." International Center for Counterterrorism: Netherlands. 1-5.

Hall, Richard. 2016. " Libya now has three governments, none of which can actually govern". The world. March 31, 2016. https://theworld.org/stories/2016-03-31/libya-now-has-three-governments-none-which-can-actually-govern

Ilardo, M. 2018. "The Rivalry between France and Italy over Libya and its Southwest Theatre." Austria Institut Für Europa und Sicherheitpolitik , (May) : 1-4.

INDEPENDENT. 2020. "No end in sight’ for Libya war after Turkey’s intervention corners rebel warlord". May 15, 2020. https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/world/turkey-libya-war-un-tripoli-haftar-latest-a9516211.html

Irish, John. 2019. "Egypt, Qatar trade barbs at U.N. on Libya conflict interference". Reuters. September 24, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-libya-idUSKBN1W924W

International Trade Administration. 2020. "Turkey - Oil and Gas". https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-turkey-oil-and-gas

Katz, M., & Fairfax, V. 2011. "Russia and the Arab spring". Russian Analytical Digest. 98, no.6: 4-6. https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/RAD-98-4-6.pdf

Knipp, Kersten. 2020. "Why Turkey's Libya commitment angers Arab nations". DW. January 18, 2020. https://www.dw.com/en/why-turkeys-libya-commitment-angers-arab-nations/a-52052924

Koenig, N. 2011. "The EU and the Libyan crisis–in quest of coherence?" The international spectator 46, no. 4: 11-30.

Kuperman, A. J. 2015. "Obama's Libya debacle: how a well-meaning intervention ended in failure." Foreign Affairs 94, no. 2 : 66-77.

Knipp, Kersten. 2020. "Latest effort at peace for Libya launches", Dw. September 11, 2020.

https://www.dw.com/en/un-backed-conference-is-latest-effort-at-peace-for-libya/a-55514203

Larsen, Ross. 2019. "Libya Crisis Widens Fault Lines in Italy's Populist Government". Bloomberg. April 14, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-14/libya-crisis-widens-fault-lines-in-italy-s-populist-government

Hameed, Muntasser Majeed.2022." Hybrid regimes: An Overview." IPRI Journal. 22, no 1(Jun): 1–24. doi.org/10.31945/iprij.220101.

Lotfi, Fatma. 2020. "Libya’s 5+5 joint military commission launches 6th round of talks in Sirte". dailynewsegypt. November 10, 2020. https://dailynewsegypt.com/2020/11/10/libyas-55-joint-military-commission-launches-6th-round-of-talks-in-sirte/

Mackinnon, Amy. 2020. "Russia and Turkey’s Proxy War in Libya Heats Up".Forreignpolicy. June 19, 2020. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/19/russia-and-turkeys-proxy-war-in-libya-heats-up/

Mansour, Mohammed. 2020. "The Qatari Military role in the Libyan conflict (2011 – 2020)”. Almarsad Almasry. August 18,2020. https://marsad.ecss.com.eg/37763/

Marten, K. 2019. "Russia’s use of semi-state security forces: the case of the Wagner Group." Post-Soviet Affairs 35, no. 3: 181-204.

Megerisi, Tarek. 2020. "Geostrategic Dimensions of Libya’s Civil War". Africacenter. May 18, 2020. https://africacenter.org/publication/geostrategic-dimensions-libya-civil-war/

Mezran, Hyperlink, and Emadeddin Badi. 2020. "Libyan ceasefire agreement faces hurdles due to foreign intervention". Atlantic council. November 5, 2020. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/libyan-ceasefire-agreement-faces-hurdles-due-to-foreign-intervention/

Mourad, Mahmoud, and Omar Fahmy. 2020. "Sisi says Egypt won't stand idle in Libya if security is threatened".Reuters. JULY 16, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKCN24H28A

Neumann, Hannah. 2020. "REPORT on Arms export: implementation of Common Position 2008/944/CFSP (2020/2003(INI))". Committee on Foreign Affairs (Plenary sitting), European Parliament 2019-2024: 4-5.

Nichols, Michelle. 2020. "Russia steps up support for a private military contractor in Libya: U.N. report". Reuters. September 2, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-un-idUSKBN25T37G

Nuruzzaman, M. 2015. "Qatar and the Arab Spring: down the foreign policy slope." Contemporary Arab Affairs 8, no. 2: 226-238.

OPEC. 2020. "Libya facts and figures". https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/166.htm

Pack, Jason, and Matthew Sinkez. 2019. "Khalifa Haftar’s Miscalculated Attack on Tripoli Will Cost Him Dearly". Foreign policy. April 10, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/10/khalifa-haftars-miscalculated-attack-on-tripoli-will-cost-him-and-libya-dearly-un-benghazi-gna-lna/

Pladson, Kristie. 2020. "Germany exports millions in arms to Libya war belligerents, despite embargo". DW. May 17, 2020. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-exports-millions-in-arms-to-libya-war-belligerents-despite-embargo/a-53469291

Politics Today. 2019. "The Turkish-Libyan Maritime Deal: What Are the Implications?". Politics today. December 16, 2019. https://politicstoday.org/the-turkish-libyan-maritime-deal-what-are-the-implications/

Ragab, E. 2017. "Beyond money and diplomacy: Regional policies of Saudi Arabia and UAE after the Arab Spring." The International Spectator 52, no. 2 (January) : 37-53.

Rettman, Andrew. 2020. "Why do EU arms end up in Libya despite UN ban?". Euobserver. January 24, 2020. https://euobserver.com/foreign/147256

Reuters. 2020. "Egypt, UAE welcome Libya ceasefire talks". June 3, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-security-egypt-emirates-idUSL8N2DG30Q

Reuters. 2020. "Factbox: Who's involved in Libya's war and why". May 29, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-intervention-factbox-idUSKBN2351W0

Reuters. 2019. "Greece proposes World Court if maritime dialogue with Turkey fails". December 29, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-turkey-hague-idUSKBN1YX08M

Reuters. 2020."UAE official tells Turkey to stop meddling in Arab affairs over Libya". August 1, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-emirates-turkey-idUSKBN24X3LE

Roselle, L. 2017. "Strategic narratives and alliances: The cases of intervention in Libya (2011) and economic sanctions against Russia (2014)." Politics and Governance 5, no. 3 (September): 99-110.

Ryan, Missy. and Sudarsan Raghavan. 2020. "U.S. remains on the sidelines in Libya’s conflict as Russia extends its reach." Washington Post. July 20, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-remains-on-the-sidelines-in-libyas-conflict-as-russia-extends-its-reach/2020/07/17/04be5100-bf90-11ea-864a-0dd31b9d6917_story.html.

Sanders IV, Lewis, and Kersten Knipp. 2020. "Russia expands war presence in Libya". DW. May 29, 2020. https://www.dw.com/en/russia-expands-war-presence-in-libya/a-53623666

Sawani, Y. M. 2017. "Security sector reform, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of militias: the challenges for state building in Libya." Contemporary Arab Affairs 10, no.2 (March):171-186.

Shennib, Ghaith. 2014. "Libyan militias threaten parliament, deploy forces in Tripoli". Reuters. February 18, 2014. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-libya-politics-idUKBREA1H1KA20140218

Song, Z., Che, S., and Y. Yang. 2018. "The trade network of the Belt and Road Initiative and its topological relationship to the global trade network." Journal of Geographical Sciences 28, no. 9: 1248-1262.

Spassov, P. 2014. "NATO, Russia and European Security: Lessons Learned from Conflicts in Kosovo and Libya." Connections, 13, no. 3: 21-40.

Stavridis, Stelios .2014. "EU incoherence and inconsistency over Libya”: evidence to the contrary." journals. December 1, 2014. https://journals.openedition.org/cdlm/7767?lang=en

Stephen, Chris. 2012. "After Gaddafi, Libya splits into disparate militia zones." theguardian. Jun 10, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/10/libya-split-between-militias

Tastekin, Fehim. 2020. "Why is Sirte everyone’s ‘red line’ in Libya? ". al-monitor. June 19, 2020, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2020/06/turkey-libya-russia-egypt-why-sirte-everyones-red-line.html

the Guardian. 2011. "Qatar admits sending hundreds of troops to support Libya rebels". October 26, 2011. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/26/qatar-troops-libya-rebels-support

Torelli, Stefano M. 2018. "Migration through the Mediterranean: Mapping the EU response". ecfr . April 17 , 2018. https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_migration/

TOTAL. 2018. "TOTAL ACQUIRES A 16.33% STAKE IN THE WAHA CONCESSIONS IN LIBYA". Fabruary 3, 2018. https://www.total.com/media/news/press-releases/Total-acquires-a-16.33-percent-stake-in-the-Waha-Concessions-in-Libya

TRTWorld. 2019." Italy accuses France of blocking Libyan peace due to economic interests". January 23, 2019. https://www.trtworld.com/europe/italy-accuses-france-of-blocking-libyan-peace-due-to-economic-interests-23557

TRTWORLD. 2020. "Why did Egypt's Sisi call Libya's Sirte a red line?". January 26, 2020. https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-did-egypt-s-sisi-call-libya-s-sirte-a-red-line-37634

Vandewalle, Dirk. 2012 "After Qaddafı: The Surprising Success of the New Libya." Foreign Affairs 91, no. 6: 8-15.

YILMAZ, S., and M. ERTURK. 2020. "Oil Geopolitics of Libya and Turkey." International Journal of Arts and Commerce 9, no. 8: 11-26.

التنزيلات

منشور

2023-06-01

كيفية الاقتباس

محمد همام ح. ح. (2023). تأثير تدويل الأزمة الليبية في مستقبل التسوية السياسية. مجلة العلوم السياسية, 65, 251-278. https://doi.org/10.30907/jcopolicy.vi65.522

تواريخ المنشور

المؤلفات المشابهة

31-40 من 62

يمكنك أيضاً إبدأ بحثاً متقدماً عن المشابهات لهذا المؤلَّف.